Trending Topics on Twitter: What does it take?
Monday, September 21, 2009
(Update: More on why this matters and its implications here in Part II)
I've been conducting some informal research over the past couple weeks, and I've discovered that a frequency of approx 20 tweets per minute mentioning the same word is enough to create a top trending topic on Twitter.
As I was watching the trending topics this morning, at 7am EST, I saw the word "peace" suddenly pop up on Twitter's list of top 10 trending topics. Using Twitter's search I quickly counted up the number of results over the previous 5 minutes, and found 69 mentions, mostly in reference to today being The International Day of Peace.
Over the next 5 minutes, there were approximately 120 new mentions. Combined, those mentions averaged about 19 mentions per minute at the time when the word became a top 10 trending topic.
This confirms an earlier bit of research I did last Wednesday, when I looked at the number of mentions for "Baucus" when Senator Max Baucus' proposed health care legislation became a trending topic. Using Trendistic to determine when the term got hot, I went back through Twitter search and counted the mentions. I found that a frequency of approx 20-25 mentions per minute was enough to make Baucus become a trending topic.
The other key variable in the trending topic equation is the duration of the frequency of mentions. Once you pass the necessary threshold of mentions per minute to become a trending topic, how long can you sustain that frequency? It's this length of time that determines the strength and staying power of a trending topic.
(Click for full size image)
Right now this is only a hypothesis. I don't have enough data to prove it out. But, as brands become interested in attempting to create a trending topic as a marketing campaign objective, it will be critical for us to have a better handle on what it takes.
I'd love to hear your own speculations, questions, findings, and general thoughts. Comments are encouraged.
I've been conducting some informal research over the past couple weeks, and I've discovered that a frequency of approx 20 tweets per minute mentioning the same word is enough to create a top trending topic on Twitter.
As I was watching the trending topics this morning, at 7am EST, I saw the word "peace" suddenly pop up on Twitter's list of top 10 trending topics. Using Twitter's search I quickly counted up the number of results over the previous 5 minutes, and found 69 mentions, mostly in reference to today being The International Day of Peace.
Over the next 5 minutes, there were approximately 120 new mentions. Combined, those mentions averaged about 19 mentions per minute at the time when the word became a top 10 trending topic.
This confirms an earlier bit of research I did last Wednesday, when I looked at the number of mentions for "Baucus" when Senator Max Baucus' proposed health care legislation became a trending topic. Using Trendistic to determine when the term got hot, I went back through Twitter search and counted the mentions. I found that a frequency of approx 20-25 mentions per minute was enough to make Baucus become a trending topic.
The other key variable in the trending topic equation is the duration of the frequency of mentions. Once you pass the necessary threshold of mentions per minute to become a trending topic, how long can you sustain that frequency? It's this length of time that determines the strength and staying power of a trending topic.
Right now this is only a hypothesis. I don't have enough data to prove it out. But, as brands become interested in attempting to create a trending topic as a marketing campaign objective, it will be critical for us to have a better handle on what it takes.
I'd love to hear your own speculations, questions, findings, and general thoughts. Comments are encouraged.
5 Comments:
Your observations seems to be correct. I have been tracking it for some time as well.
I know one can't stop this, but posts like this is exactly the reason why I don't think trending topics will remain relevant. It's supposed to be a clear picture of what is interesting right now. If an organisation could manipulate that, its basis would crumble.
Looking at the amount of trending spam, its relevance already seems to be slowly fading.
I agree with the above comment - the initial reaction is of course to say, 'cool, I could totally just get some friends to say 'whatever' and it becomes a trending topic. However it will only be a trending topic for a small period of time. The numbers on twitter are so high now that to get a 'real' trending topic means we would need to do something real.
So, i guess that was a long way of saying, 'Keep it Real'.
as with all social media, i think the focus needs to be on content: what is the brand providing me that adds value to my life, in a social and useful way? so i think the question is less about "how to create a trending topic" and more "how to make the best use of a trending topic" - that is, not just to get mentions, but to reveal some actually useful/interesting content that you/your brand is providing to a large group of people at once.
"how to create a trending topic" is still necessary information, but it is secondary/supplemental to, "why would you want to create one in the first place?"
and whatever content you reveal, yeah, you better Keep it Real. word.
Hi Mike, interesting post.
I would have to agree with Nora on this one. Focusing on the metrics makes the whole thing about quantity, when understanding how this is valuable is more related to quality.
In my opinion it would be more interesting to study what kind of stuff finds its way into the hot list, and why. But this might be a different post, since you already have been sharing some important insights about this the last months?
Charles Leadbeater said something really interesting in his TED Talk from years back, about people wanting to be "in the flow of information". What does this flow of information mean? Why do more than 6000 people comment on Coca-Cola’s Facebook Fan Page when Coke writes something as ubiquitous as “have a nice weekend”?
I would argue that setting up quantitative measures focuses the activities on the easy to measure traffic side of things, not the difficult but hopefully more valuable stuff. As John Steel points out:
“I also think we should be angered by the accountability mindset that means we're making more and more decisions based on what can be measured rather than what's really important.”
Best
Helge
I completely agree that the substance, the cultural significance of trending topics is incredibly important. As we know, this stuff doesn't spread on its own. Topics catch on because people are using these topics to connect with each other.
The quantitative side of things is relevant, however, to the extent that it provides context for an already used success metric. Brands already point to having achieved a trending topic as proof of the success of a campaign. Well, what does achieving a trending topic really mean? Is it really as big a deal as people think?
These preliminary numbers indicate that because of how fragmented the conversation is on Twitter, earning a trending topic is not the same thing as "getting everyone on Twitter to talk about the same thing." There's a huge gaping chasm between those two occurrences.
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